Compte tenu de CFDs trading Ces dérivés polyvalents offrent un bon potentiel pour des rendements plus élevés 8212, mais avec ce potentiel vient un risque plus élevé. Il ya quelques aspects fondamentaux, vous devez être au courant avant de sauter dans le commerce CFD. Gérez vos risques et planifiez vos opérations 8212 jetez un coup d'œil aux points et conseils suivants. Les dix choses les plus importantes sur la négociation de CFD Peu importe l'instrument financier que vous négociez, vous devez planifier vos opérations avec soin avant de mettre le capital à risque. Lorsque vous échangez des CFD, la composante de levier de ces dérivés signifie que vous devez être encore plus prudent. À bien des égards, les dix principales choses à considérer lors de la négociation de CFDs concernent la gestion des risques et une planification judicieuse. Bien qu'il existe diverses méthodes de négociation qui peuvent être développés pour vous aider à trouver comment et pourquoi vous allez placer un métier, ces conseils sont fondamentaux pour tous les commerçants prospères. Gardez vos niveaux de risque prudent en utilisant des pertes d'arrêt et des positions de taille raisonnable. Réalisez que vous n'allez pas faire une fortune pendant la nuit en utilisant le levier. Au lieu de cela, essayez de progresser progressivement avec un plan de négociation bien pensé. Portez une attention particulière à la gestion de vos opérations existantes 8212 ne cherchez pas juste de nouveaux métiers. Travailler dur sur la construction d'une méthode de négociation unique qui est efficace et adapté pour vous avant d'essayer ou d'ajouter un nouveau. Si vous changez votre plan, faites le étape par étape au lieu de tous dans un aller 8212 de cette façon, vous pouvez mieux déterminer ce qui se passe bien et whats pas. Ne faites pas votre décision sur le fournisseur à utiliser en fonction de celui qui fournit la plus faible exigence de marge 8212 vous généralement ne veulent pas être si fortement à effet de levier que cela devient un énorme problème. Peu importe comment vous êtes expérimenté avec d'autres produits, commencez très petit avec des positions de CFD afin que vous ne faites face à des surprises désagréables. Soyez conscient du risque que vous soyez exposé à 8212 à la fois sur des positions individuelles et dans votre portefeuille dans son ensemble. Les opérations de levier ne devraient pas constituer la majorité de votre portefeuille de placements et ne devrait pas être fait en utilisant l'argent dont vous avez besoin pour vivre. Ne cherchez pas la méthode parfaite qui sera toujours correcte car il n'existe pas 8212 au lieu de se concentrer sur le maintien de vos pertes petites et vos méthodes cohérentes. Construire votre plan de trading de CFD Une fois que les gens entendent parler des avantages de trading CFDs, ils veulent souvent commencer immédiatement et vous pouvez ressentir le même 8212 que vous voulez juste avoir un aller. Résistez à la tentation, cependant, et passer un peu de temps à réfléchir soigneusement à la façon dont vous allez aborder et gérer votre trading de CFD avant de mettre un centime à risque. Lors de la détermination de votre plan de trading, il ya quelques facteurs importants à considérer, y compris: Votre méthode. Il est important de développer une méthode que vous pouvez reproduire encore et encore. Si vous commerce avec peu de planification, vous trouverez très difficile de travailler sur ce qui s'est passé par la chance et ce qui s'est passé par une bonne gestion. Vos points d'entrée. Vous devez savoir quels métiers vous recherchez et quelles conditions déclencheront une entrée dans une position. Assurez vous de ne jamais changer vos raisons d'être dans un commerce après vous entrez 8212 fois que vous commencez à faire cela, vous pouvez justifier d'être dans tout le commerce parce que tout ce que vous devez faire est juste changer les raisons autour. Vos points de sortie. Vous devez savoir où vous allez quitter une position et combien vous êtes prêt à risquer avant que vous placez réellement le commerce. Bien que vous ne pouvez pas toujours dire exactement où votre sortie sera (en raison de l'écart de marché), vous devriez être très clair quant à quelles conditions doivent être satisfaits pour vous de fermer votre métier. Votre comptabilité. Vous devez être clair sur la façon dont vous allez garder une trace de votre commerce. Un bon enregistrement signifie que lorsque vous regardez en arrière comment vous avez fait, vous pouvez facilement voir les choses que vous devrez peut être changer. Trading à long et trading à court CFDs L'une des grandes caractéristiques des CFD est que vous êtes en mesure de négocier à la fois le long et le côté court du marché. Même si dans les premiers stades de votre expérience de trading CFD vous arent sûrs si vous souhaitez commercer sur le côté court, vous devriez encore passer un peu de temps à apprendre ce que tout ce que votre connaissance du marché est plus arrondi. Négocier le côté court signifie que vous avez ouvert votre métier en utilisant une commande de vente ou court. Cela signifie que vous vous attendez à des prix à la baisse et utilisera un ordre d'achat pour fermer votre position. (Cela peut sembler bizarre, mais c'est la façon dont vous fermez votre exposition au marché.) Le bénéfice de la négociation à court est que vous pouvez profiter directement de la baisse des prix, ce qui est très difficile à faire sans l'utilisation de produits tels que les CFD. Connaître vos types de commande pour CFD Trading Vous devez être prêt à assumer la responsabilité des métiers de marché financier que vous faites, qu'ils soient rentables ou non. Si vous ne connaissez pas tous vos types d'ordres, cependant, il va être impossible pour vous de négocier avec confiance. Une fois que vous connaissez vos types de commande, vous pouvez vous concentrer tout le temps sur votre stratégie de négociation et d'exécution. Les fournisseurs de CFD vous offrent généralement un large choix de types de commandes, qui vous permettent d'exécuter beaucoup plus facilement vos stratégies de négociation. Un ordre de marché vous permet d'entrer au prix courant. Un ordre limité vous permet de passer une commande pour acheter (ou vendre) à un prix inférieur (ou supérieur) que le marché est actuellement à. Les traders peuvent utiliser ces types d'ordres lorsqu'ils attendent que les prix se déplacent près d'un niveau de support ou de résistance avant d'entrer sur le marché. Un ordre d'arrêt vous permet de fermer un poste au dessous du prix du marché actuel et est le moyen principal que les commerçants utilisent pour gérer le risque sur chaque poste qu'ils prennent. D'autres types de commandes incluent les ordres if done et l'un annule les autres commandes. Les types d'ordres disponibles dépendent du fournisseur que vous utilisez, mais généralement ces commandes plus avancées vous permettent de lier différents types d'ordres ensemble pour exécuter plus de votre stratégie d'une seule fois. Connaître des détails sur vos marchés financiers avant de négocier des CFD Avec de nombreux fournisseurs de CFD, vous pouvez traiter sur un certain nombre de marchés de la même plate forme. Avant d'entrer sur les différents marchés disponibles, cependant, vous avez besoin d'apprendre sur l'ouverture du marché et les heures de fermeture, les effets de change et les spécificités des produits sous jacents que vous négociez. Vérifiez avec votre fournisseur pour les détails des CFD qu'ils offrent et les heures auxquelles ils sont disponibles pour le commerce. Les points de base à retenir sont CFDs sont des prix basés sur la valeur d'un marché sous jacent. Cela signifie que vous devez connaître les conditions dans lesquelles ce marché fonctionne. Par exemple, si vous souhaitez échanger des CFD de parts au Canada, vous devrez savoir quand le marché des actions sous jacent est ouvert, car cela dictera quand vous pourrez échanger les CFD. Les opérations de change se font 24 heures sur 24 entre le lundi matin (heure asiatique) et le vendredi soir (heure du sud est). De nombreux produits et indices négocient des sessions très longues mais peuvent se fermer périodiquement en 24 heures. Connaître vos risques lors de la négociation de CFDs Quand il s'agit de trading financier à effet de levier, la gestion de votre risque est primordiale. Lorsque vous commencez à négocier CFDs, de nombreux commerçants pensent que connaître leurs signaux d'entrée et de sortie est la clé, mais cela fonctionne vraiment à la deuxième place par rapport à la préservation du capital 8212 sans capital, vous ne pouvez pas le commerce, peu importe la qualité de vos signaux d'entrée. Quand il s'agit de connaître votre risque, il ya quelques points importants à retenir: Dont sur leverage. Le montant d'effet de levier que vous permettez doit toujours refléter le montant du capital que vous avez dans votre compte de négoce 8212 et vous devriez viser environ 3215 levier sur votre capital. Par exemple, si vous avez 10 000 dans votre compte et que vous détenez 30 000 postes, vous avez appliqué un effet de levier 3215 à votre capital. Bien que l'effet de levier que vous avez appliqué à un poste individuel peut être beaucoup plus élevé, n'oubliez pas de vérifier l'image plus large de votre levier total et de le garder sous contrôle. Ne pas ouvrir trop de positions. Beaucoup de gens concentrent leur énergie sur la recherche du fournisseur de CFD qui offre la plus faible exigence de marge, mais alors devenir fou ouverture de multiples positions et finissent par utiliser tous leurs capitaux disponibles. C'est une erreur en raison des effets du levier, tout ce qu'il faut c'est un mauvais commerce et votre capital commercial pourrait être effacé. Toujours garder beaucoup d'argent de rechange disponible. Connaître les conditions dans lesquelles vous allez quitter un métier avant d'entrer po Si vous faites cela, vous pouvez travailler sur ce que perdre un métier vous coûtera avant de faire le commerce. Ne supposez pas que votre point de sortie sera exactement où vous avez défini votre stop loss. À divers degrés, l'écart peut survenir dans tous les marchés. Cela signifie que votre perte stop sera exécutée à un prix inférieur à ce que vous prévoyez, vous coûter plus 8212 selon le marché, parfois beaucoup plus. 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This is the exact reason why I use the 5 minute chart to keep my head on straight but sometimes its till not enough and I take profits early. When there are no swing trading setups I focus on finding these intraday daytrading gold patterns. To see some of my spot gold price trading charts using GLD visit this link: thegoldandoilguyarticlestaggold spot price . Spot Gold Prices Gold Price Chart 11th August 2009 Tuesday. August 11 th. 2009 Spot gold prices continued to fall yesterday and ended the gold trading session on a wide spread down bar which crossed both the 9 and 14 day moving averages, the move no doubt accelerated by the stops triggered at the 950 per ounce price handle. The decline was also boosted by a moderate firming of the US Dollar. Overall spot gold prices fell 9.52 on the day to close at 944.28 per ounce. From a technical perspective it is the lack of volume which is contributing to the current volatility and price swings thereby making gold trading extremely tricky. The wide spread down bar created during yesterdays gold trading session reinforced once again the almost perfect long legged doji of Thursday last week which was the first indication that all was not well with the gold chart and has since been followed by 2 strong down days. With the close of yesterday now below both the moving averages outlined above, but perhaps more importantly the strong support level now breached in the 950 price band, this does not augur for gold bulls in the short term. The depth of this reversal now seems set to continue for a while longer and the next technical level is the support region in the 938 per ounce level. If this is breached then we will almost certainly pierce the 40 day moving average which will add its weight to any further move down. With the FOMC meeting starting today and scheduled for completion tomorrow all the markets are in a state of limbo waiting for some clues as to their possible future direction and, in particular, the FEDs view of the economy and hence interest rates which could provide a spark for gold and the US Dollar. With the recent price volatility in the gold market. this has presented many trading opportunities on both sides of the market, but to be successful you need a specialist gold broker who not only understands the market, but also offers tight spreads, along with the latest news from around the world affecting the commodities sector. One of the keys to success is to practise first, so if you would like a free trial of one of the best gold trading platforms around, then please just follow the link here, and get started trading in gold. The short term is bearish, medium term is sideways the long term is bullish. 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It was recorded having as reference GoPro IPO. Learn about the worlds best stock trading system. The best online trading course on Live trading. See Curriculum here. The best online trading course for stock market investors is the one that includes the worlds best trade calls recorded live offering the opportunity to any subscriber to become a millionaire by following Vieiras trading methodology and stock market guidance. Learn about the only proven methodology making consistent profits in the stock market regardless of market conditions. Trading Strategy: Oil Stocks vs. Oil Dec. 29, 2008 5:03 AM This strategy was inspired by the recent Bespoke post Oil Stocks Outperforming Oil in which Bespoke showed the historical ratio between the price of oil stocks and the price of oil itself. Ive reproduced their graph below. Rising values indicate that oil stock prices are strong relative to oil, and falling values that oil stock prices are weak relative to oil. In this post, Ill demonstrate a strategy that uses this ratio to trade the oil sector. click to enlarge Im not sure what indices Bespoke used in their study, but the graph above is similar in spirit. Ive used the Amex Oil Index 40XOI41 to represent the oil sector and the spot price of West Texas crude to represent the price of oil. ETFs such as Energy Select Spider (NYSEARCA:XLE ) or U. S. Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO ) could be substituted with basically the same results. The next graph shows strategy results from early 1986 ldquotradingrdquo XOI using the following rules: go long at todays close if the 9 day exponential moving average of the oil sector vs. oil ratio is falling. Close the position and move to cash if it is rising. click to enlarge Strategy results are in green, buy and hold in blue, and just for comparisons sake, the opposite trading rules are in red. This is a very simple proof of concept so these results are frictionless (i. e. do not account for transaction costs or slippage) and do not include return on cash, but for the sake of argument, these results could have been more or less duplicated using leveraged mutual funds (the only things I trade). And for the number lovers: click to enlarge In a nutshell, this strategy is buying oil stocks when theyve become cheap (in an intermediate time frame) relative to oil itself, and exiting oil stocks when theyve become expensive. The strategy hasnt been particularly profitable this year, but has at least scratched breakeven (compared to a 40 loss for buy hold). Strategy results YTD: click to enlarge Conceptually, I think that this strategy makes perfect sense. I also think it has a lot of room for improvement because were only looking at oil stocks relative to oil, and not directly attempting to time the oil sector itself. Im going to keep this idea on my drawing board and see if I cant build off of this observation. As always, threre will be more to follow on the subject. P. S. At this moment, the EMA of the ratio is rising (i. e. oil stocks are expensive relative to the price of oil) so the strategy is neutral to bearish on oil stocks. Geek Note: There are two generally accepted ways to calculate an EMA, which produce slightly different results. Here Ive used the ((1Period)2) method. If your charting program uses the (2 (Period 1)) method, simply reduce my period by one. For example, if Ive used a 9 period EMA, the alternate EMA would be an 8 period EMA. Readerx27s Comment: Oil Stocks vs. Oil Trading Strategy Jan. 5, 2009 8:44 AM This is a drilldown (pun intended) on the strategy I shared last week that traded the oil sector using a ratio of oil stocks versus oil. As a refresher, the graph below shows the (frictionless) results of the strategy in green versus buy and hold in blue, and for comparison, the inverse of the strategy in red, from 1986. click to enlarge The strategy went long the oil sector at todays (December 29) close when the 9 day exponential moving average of the oil sector vs. oil ratio was falling, indicating that oil stocks were becoming cheap (in an intermediate timeframe) relative to oil itself. Reader Russ Abbott of Los Angeles, California responded with a very smart comment. In a nutshell, Russ questioned my oversimplification that oil stocks were becoming cheap relative to oil. Was it that both were rising but oil stocks had risen less (i. e. oil leading oil stocks up), or that both were falling, but oil stocks had fallen more (i. e. oil stocks leading oil down), or were the two diverging (i. e. oil stocks heading down while oil itself heading up) In the graph below Ive rerun the original strategy in four different flavors: when the 9 day exponential moving average of oil stocks was rising (blue) or falling (dotted blue), or of oil prices was rising (red) or falling (dotted red). click to enlarge At first glance it appears that the strategy was most effective when either oil stocks or oil itself was rising (solid lines relative to dotted lines), but that ignores the fact that one of those flavors might spend a lot less time in the market. So, the next table looks at daily returns (only when invested): click to enlarge What can we conclude from the graph and table above The ldquoNumber of Daysrdquo column shows that most of the time the strategy is buying the oil sector when oil prices have been rising but that rise hasnt yet been matched by the oil sector (i. e. oil leading oil stocks up). In terms of pure daily return, the strategy has been most effective when oil prices have been falling (but oil stocks have been falling even more), but in terms of volatility adjusted return, the strategy has been more effective when the oil sector has been rising (but oil prices have been rising even more). But the most important takeaway is that all four flavors of the strategy have been effective. My oversimplification was (unintentionally) spot on regardless of whether the oil sector or oil itself has been rising or falling, the fact that the oil sector has become cheap relative to oil (in the intermediate timeframe were looking at here), has been bullish for oil stocks. Thanks again to Russ for the smart comment. There is nothing better as a blogger than when readers get directly involved in pushing this collective discussion forward. Geek Note: There are two generally accepted ways to calculate an EMA that produce slightly different results. Here Ive used the ((1Period)2) method. If your charting program uses the (2 (Period 1)) method, simply reduce my period by one. For example, if Ive used a 9 period EMA, the alternate EMA would be an 8 period EMA. Trading Strategy For Oil Prices One of the most interesting commodities to trade is oil. Oil prices are commonly discussed, and volatile enough to offer interesting opportunities for active traders and investors. Oil prices have been developing several interesting formations over the past year, which might open the door for a profitable trading strategy. At the same time, there are certain dangers in the current formation of oil prices that if a trader isnt careful, could cost them quite a bit of money. When looking at the one year chart of oil prices, as represented by West Texas Intermediate Crude contract (WTI) traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), it is quite evident to note the wide trading range that oil prices have remained since last summer. One of the dangers common to traders when considering a position in crude, is always believing that oil prices will move back to the upper end of a trading range. Note the circled area last October. Oil prices fell in September, formed a consolidation area which tricked many traders into going long believing that oil prices will rebound, then failed and sold off once again flushing out many traders. We could be at a similar point, with a small consolidation area now being formed. When looking at oil prices, it is always dangerous to be biased either long or short. Trade what the market gives you. At this point, the danger is if oil prices fall through the recent lows. This will flush out any short term traders that are long oil prices, causing a further decline. The proper strategy would be to either wait for a break of oil prices down to new recent lows, which could be then used as a shorting entry point. We think its possible that a push of oil prices just below the current consolidation area could see significant stops being triggered. Conversely, our analysis indicates that an above average entry point going long would be if the downward sloping resistance level was penetrated successfully. This would also coincide with a move for oil prices above both the 50 day and 200 day moving averages. At that point, the momentum for oil prices would turn bullish, as many other traders and their computer systems would pick up these signals. This three year chart of oil prices clearly shows a narrowing wedge formation. The danger of a trader trying to go long before confirmation is if the market for oil prices turned down and penetrated through the upward sloping support line. A penetration below or above either trend line could provide a significant push for oil prices. If a trader were trying to go long and catch a small move to the upper end of the current trading range, yet oil prices fell through the support line, the loss could be significant in relation to the potential profit. At this point, the best trading strategy for oil prices is to wait for a move into a more attractive entry point range. Currently, oil prices are in no mans land, offering no attractive risk to reward scenario to either the longs or the shorts. 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Bollinger Bands is a channel formed by two vertically displaced moving averages: one displaced upwards by two standard deviations and one displaced downwards by two standard deviations. The typical parameters refer to a simple moving average and standard deviation based on 20 periods. Rules for Long Squeeze Wait for Bandwidth to reach its lowest in 120 period (John Bollinger mentioned 6 months, but I used 120 period on daily charts as an approximate) Go long on close above 20 period Bollinger Bands Rules for Short Squeeze Wait for Bandwidth to reach its lowest in 120 period Go short on close below 20 period Bollinger Bands Winning Trade Bollinger Squeeze Bollinger Squeeze Winning Trade This is a daily chart of Ameren Corp listed on NYSE. The bottom panel showed that Bandwidth had dropped to its 120 day low. As we were only interested in the relative value of Bandwidth, the standard deviation indicator worked fine. The blue line tracked the lowest standard deviation value in 120 days. (I used a 120 period Donchian Channel on the standard deviation indicator and displayed only the bottom channel line.) On 18 October 2006, price closed above the Bollinger Bands and we went long. The price continued up over the next six days, giving us a good swing trade. The earlier tag of the upper Bollinger Band met strong resistance as shown by the strong bear trend bar followed by a bearish reversal bar that tested the high of the bear trend bar before it. Despite such strong overhanging resistance, prices refused to move down much and entered a trading range. This showed that the bulls were holding power. After Bandwidth reached its 120 day low, we got a shaved bottom bull bar which showed upwards momentum. The next bar was a great follow through of this bar and closed beyond the Bollinger Bands, giving us a strong long entry. Losing Trade Bollinger Squeeze Bollinger Squeeze Losing Trade The is a daily chart of Bristol Myers Squibb Co. listed on NYSE. Again, Bandwidth dropped to its 120 day low to show low volatility. We braced ourselves for a breakout and shorted on 8 June 2007 as the day closed below the Bollinger Bands. However, prices continued a little beyond our entry before reversing back up, giving us a failure. Not over analysing, just take a glance at the trading range before the breakout (the boxed area) and you would have noticed more green than red, suggesting that buying pressure dominated despite the clear sideways movement. In addition, there was an existing upwards trend and counter trend breakouts were not a good idea. Review Bollinger Squeeze I like the Bollinger Squeeze setup as it makes use of the sound concept of low volatility leading to high volatility. Periods of low volatility are difficult to trade due to false breakouts. The Squeeze highlights record low volatility when it is safer to look for breakouts. This setup is extremely useful for trading options as it pinpoints explosive price moves following periods of low volatility. However, such breakout plays are prone to failures (called head fakes by John Bollinger in his book). Hence, looking for subtle price action clues in the trading range leading up to the breakout is invaluable. Of course, trading with the last established trend also increases the odds of having winning trades. In John Bollingers book, he also explained how to avoiding false breakouts with volume analysis. Learn: Bollinger on Bollinger Bands Why Trade The Opening Gap Learn more about probability based quant trading at investiquant Trading gaps is not for everyone. But for me, I consider the opening gap, the ideal trade setup. They occur almost daily, offer plenty of profit opportunity, and are normally short term in nature (1 2 hours). Gap trading offers many other compelling benefits including: Gaps have an inherent bias and edge: over 72 of all gaps (in the SP 500) have filled the same day over the past ten years. They occur frequently (three to four tradable gaps per week in the SP) so I am not reliant upon catching that one big winner to achieve my monthly goals. Its an easy trade to learn and play. No need to time the entry just use a market order at the open. I can prepare in about 15 minutes before the market opens each day. No need to scan hundreds of stocks at night. I can trade them without charts and from anywhere. No need to baby sit lots of different markets waiting for that perfect, entry sensitive trade to appear. Getting filled with minimal slippage is not an issue especially in highly liquid markets like the equity indices and futures markets (SP 500, NASDAQ 100, etc.). The target is pre defined so I dont have to manage the trade after placing it (though sometimes I do to maximize profits). I am done trading in the morning on most days (if I want). My risks are controlled and limited to a small percent of my account. No overnight risk. Gap trades work in bull and bear markets equally well. I dont need to predict the markets next move. They occur in most asset classes (equities, futures, currencies, etc.) and can be traded using stock, options, and futures contracts. I can grow my account several percent per month on average, and often more with this single, simple setup using just one market. Understanding the bias of the market before and after the gap fills, provides a trading edge for the rest of the day while also helping optimize my entries on swing and position trades. Dr. Harry Schiller, a columnist for the TheStreet, may have said it best at the June, 2007 Moneyshow (paraphrased from online interview video): Gaps define the markets action, especially the SP futures gap, on an intraday, daily, even monthly basis very, very often. Whatever you are buying, you will do a better job, be more effective and more profitable, if you buy as those gaps are getting filled. People who dont pay attention to gaps, are just missing the boat To see the video and learn more on how Dr. Schiller uses gaps in his daily decision making, click here. Learn more about probability based quant trading at investiquant 2 comments on ldquo Why Trade Gaps rdquo Maybe you have invested in the past on products that have failed to deliver on promises, leaving you with nothing but frustration, here is good news, you are steps away to learning the simple strategic way that makes one a fortune trading forex via the extreme day price action trading strategy blueprint . The extreme day trading manual remains the best solution to all problems by providing a simple, easy to follow guide to success which has nothing to do with your years of experience in the forex trading business. 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All the next Using Genetic Algorithms To Forecast Financial Markets Burton suggested in his book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, (1973) that, A blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspapers financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by experts. While evolution may have made man no more intelligent at picking stocks, Charles Darwins theory has quite effective when applied more directly. (To help you pick stocks, check out How To Pick A Stock .) What Are Genetic Algorithms Genetic algorithms (GAs) are problem solving methods (or heuristics) that mimic the process of natural evolution. Unlike artificial neural networks (ANNs), designed to function like neurons in the brain, these algorithms utilize the concepts of natural selection to determine the best solution for a problem. As a result, GAs are commonly used as optimizers that adjust parameters to minimize or maximize some feedback measure, which can then be used independently or in the construction of an ANN. In the financial markets, genetic algorithms are most commonly used to find the best combination values of parameters in a trading rule, and they can be built into ANN models designed to pick stocks and identify trades. Several studies have demonstrated that these methods can prove effective, including Genetic Algorithms: Genesis of Stock Evaluation (2004) by Rama, and The Applications of Genetic Algorithms in Stock Market Data Mining Optimization (2004) by Lin, Cao, Wang, Zhang. (To learn more about ANN, see Neural Networks: Forecasting Profits .) How Genetic Algorithms Work Genetic algorithms are created mathematically using vectors, which are quantities that have direction and magnitude. Parameters for each trading rule are represented with a one dimensional vector that can be thought of as a chromosome in genetic terms. Meanwhile, the values used in each parameter can be thought of as genes, which are then modified using natural selection. For example, a trading rule may involve the use of parameters like Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and Stochastics. A genetic algorithm would then input values into these parameters with the goal of maximizing net profit. Over time, small changes are introduced and those that make a desirably impact are retained for the next generation. There are three types of genetic operations that can then be performed: Crossovers represent the reproduction and biological crossover seen in biology, whereby a child takes on certain characteristics of its parents. Mutations represent biological mutation and are used to maintain genetic diversity from one generation of a population to the next by introducing random small changes. Selections are the stage at which individual genomes are chosen from a population for later breeding (recombination or crossover). These three operators are then used in a five step process: Initialize a random population, where each chromosome is n length, with n being the number of parameters. That is, a random number of parameters are established with n elements each. Select the chromosomes, or parameters, that increase desirable results (presumably net profit). Apply mutation or crossover operators to the selected parents and generate an offspring. Recombine the offspring and the current population to form a new population with the selection operator. Repeat steps two to four. Over time, this process will result in increasingly favorable chromosomes (or, parameters) for use in a trading rule. The process is then terminated when a stopping criteria is met, which can include running time, fitness, number of generations or other criteria. (For more on MACD, read Trading The MACD Divergence .) Using Genetic Algorithms in Trading While genetic algorithms are primarily used by institutional quantitative traders. individual traders can harness the power of genetic algorithms without a degree in advanced mathematics using several software packages on the market. These solutions range from standalone software packages geared towards the financial markets to Microsoft Excel add ons that can facilitate more hands on analysis. When using these applications, traders can define a set of parameters that are then optimized using a genetic algorithm and a set of historical data. Some applications can optimize which parameters are used and the values for them, while others are primarily focused on simply optimizing the values for a given set of parameters. (To learn more about these program derived strategies, see The Power Of Program Trades .) Important Optimization Tips and Tricks Curve fitting (over fitting ), designing a trading system around historical data rather than identifying repeatable behavior, represents a potential risk for traders using genetic algorithms. Any trading system using GAs should be forward tested on paper before live usage. Choosing parameters is an important part of the process, and traders should seek out parameters that correlate to changes in the price of a given security. For example, try out different indicators and see if any seem to correlate with major market turns. The Bottom Line Genetic algorithms are unique ways to solve complex problems by harnessing the power of nature. By applying these methods to predicting securities prices, traders can optimize trading rules by identifying the best values to use for each parameter for a given security. However, these algorithms are not the Holy Grail, and traders should be careful to choose the right parameters and not curve fit (over fit). (To read more about the market, check out Listen To The Market, Not Its Pundits .) 1 Daily Price Action Forex Strategy The 1 price action forex trading strategy allows currency traders to trade with the trend on the daily chart. Stop loss is defined by the 1 rule while profit target is determined by price action with no second guessing needed. Forex Chart Setup Currency Pairs: Any 100 EMA (100 exponential moving average) 1) A buy signal occurs only when the daily close is at least 1 higher than the previous daily close and the currency price is trading above the 100 exponential moving average. 2) Place stop loss 1 below the entry price. 3) Hold the currency pair until the daily close is 1 lower than the previous daily close or until you are stopped out (stop loss hit). 1) A sell signal occurs only when the daily close is at least 1 lower than the previous daily close and the currency price is trading below the 100 exponential moving average. 2) Place stop loss 1 above the entry price. 3) Hold the currency pair until the daily close is 1 higher than the previous daily close or until you are stopped out (stop loss hit). Example: 1 Price Action Forex Trading Strategy (EURUSD daily chart) The eurodollar is trading below the 100 EMA gtgt Trend is down. A 1 down candle appears gtgt We initiate a sell trade at 1.4101 with our stop loss placed 1 above entry price at 1.4242. We hold our sell position until the daily closing price is 1 higher than the previous daily close. We finally exit the trade at 1.3795 for a 306 pip gain. Posted 4 years ago 2:41 AM 7 October 2011 112 Comments Ever wondered what Huck. Cyclopip. Pipcrawler and I mean when we talk about using 10011 STA, WATR, or DATR What the heck is the STA Strategy The Stop Trail Add (STA) strategy is basically a scaling technique used to maximize profits while minimizing risk. The idea is to take advantage of a favorable price action by adding to your position, but still limiting the risk by moving your stop loss. It is usually expressed as the STA ratio. (ex. 10011, 5021, etc.) When you use the STA, youre really just expressing the ratio of 1. The size of your initial STOP loss in pips 2. The size of your TRAIL as a ratio of your original stop and 3. The units that you ADD as a ratio of your original position size. For example, a 10011 STA means that you initially have a 100 pip stop, a trailing stop 100 pips wide, and youre adding the same amount of units as your initial position size every 100 pips. Consequently, having a 5020.5 STA means that you initially have a 50 pip stop, a trailing stop twice as wide (100 pips), and youre adding half the size of your original position size every 100 pips. How do you determine the size of your STA Currency pairs have unique behaviors so the size of the STA should be appropriate for the pair youre trading. You dont want to get stopped out too early with an uber tight STA, knowing that you couldve caught the move with a larger STA. One way to determine your STA is to experiment with the pairs that you usually trade and keep track of the STA sizes that wouldve profited. Through consistent and deliberate practice that Dr. Pipslow always recommends, youll be able to gauge which STA works for your favorite pairs. Another way to determine your STA would be to use the pairs average true range (ATR). My trader buddies use a fraction (say. or ) of the pairs ATR as the size of their initial stop and trail it by the same amount. Of course, this also depends on whether youre in a day trade or a swing trade. Wait a minute. What is an ATR As the name implies, the ATR measures the pairs usual range based on the highs and lows of previous price action. It comes with a parameter X, which determines how far back on previous price action youll go. For instance, if youre using ATR (10) on a daily time frame, the indicator will give you the value for the pairs average range for the past 10 days. ATR can also be used to determine support and resistance levels (just like pivot points) for the day or the week. In fact, I use the daily and weekly ATR a lot in my trading, especially when they line up with psychological levels or previous highs and lows. How do you calculate the daily and weekly ATR Its really simple. Just take the cube root of the differential between the factorial of the highs and lows Im kidding You dont have to worry about the calculations since theres an indicator that would churn out the figures for you. You just have to make sure that you know what the ATR is measuring and what the parameter stands for, and then apply that ATR to the appropriate time frame. In my case, I use the ATR (20) for both daily and weekly charts. To get the DAILY ATR (DATR), I get the ATR (20) value on the DAILY time frame and divide it by two. I add this figure to the DAY open price to get the top of the days range and subtract the same figure from the DAY open price to get its bottom counterpart. For the WEEKLY ATR (WATR), I get the ATR (20) value on the WEEKLY time frame and divide it by two. I add this figure to the WEEK open price to get the top of the WEEKs range. Then, I subtract that same figure from the WEEK open price to get the bottom of the WEEKs range. When is it ideal to use the STA Since the STA strategy is about adding positions for every X number of pips, it is best used in a TRENDING environment. Heres an example from my Best Setup of the Week trade: In the AUDUSD chart above, I used a 10011 STA and closed it at .9700 for a 21:1 reward to risk trade. If I hadnt taken profits manually though, I wouldve ended up with only a 14:1 risk ratio Now lets take a look at the STA applied to a RANGING environment. In the USDCAD chart above I used a 5011 STA. I added another position at .9850 after shorting at .9900, but I got stopped out when price went back up to my adjusted stop loss at .9900 and hit the trailing stop on my second position (now around .9880). I ended up with a 30 pip loss. Yikes There you have it my friends Both STA and ATR explained Youre gonna have to do your own experimenting to get comfortable using this strategy, but just give me a shoutout if you have any more questions on STAs or any indicators. Im always available in one of my pages below Playing with Comdolls Facebook page Happy Pip Comdoll Corners Chips, dips, and many pips Forex Strategies explained The Internet has profoundly changed Forex trading and forex strategies. Traditionally the forex market was the turf of a select crowd of banks, Central Banks, long term investors with large capital and international corporate organizations. Trading took place via a forex broker who would inform his clients over the phone on what was happening in the currency markets. Nowadays almost all trading on the currency markets is performed by computerized automated systems. This is part of a global trend of moving trading of financial instruments from open outcry markets to computer systems. There are two main types of Forex trading strategies. The first component is technical analysis. Technical analysis is based on the charts and all so called technical information that has nothing to do with the underlying true value of the currency. It uses mathematical formulas based on market movements. Technical analysis uses chart indicators. It is helpful in determining the areas of resistance and support. The situation where the price reverses, stops or is range bound are established. One popular method for determining the levels of resistance and support is the Fibonacci method. Seven hundred fifty years ago, Fibonacci discovered a unique sequential form in number series. Fibonacci numbers which are series of constant proportions can be found in numerous biological setting such as the arrangement of a pine cone. sunflower seeds. This method called the Fibonacci sequence method is commonly learned in mathematics during high school. Fibonacci numbers have also been found to describe well currency price movements. They can be used and plotted on the chart to establish price support, resistance or price targets. However, you dont need to become a math wizard just to do this. The charting forex software is able to do the Fibonacci sequence for you. The key areas of resistance and support are potentially revealed to you as you move along the charts. The Fibonacci sequence combined with other proper indicators can show the strength and momentum of the most recent market condition. It can help you create a profitable strategy based or supported by mathematical rules. The rules clearly states that history can repeat itself, as what has happened before in the forex market will happen again in the future. The second component of forex strategies is fundamental analysis. Each and every day, economic numbers impacting the value of currencies are published on the Internet. These are macroeconomic data related to a particular country. Take for example non farm payrolls that can possibly bring unpredictable effect on the forex markets. The impact depends on the previous data and the figures implications for the countrys economy. The most important rule for beginners and veterans alike is to keep away from the market when important announcements are about to take place. Traders know when these announcements and economic news are about to be released and they stay away until the news comes to be known to all. Forex trading profits are made like in a traditional business. The procedure is very simple. You are going to buy something at a lower price then sell it at higher prices. The only difference is that in currency trading, this can be reversible. A trade is placed either in the sell or buy categories. Then the base currency will automatically buy or sell its opposite currency in the currency pair under consideration. The price will likely change every second. For example, if you purchased the GBPUSD pair. It literally means that you have purchased the pound currency and sold the dollar currency. You want a rise on the pounds value which will later on have a higher price compared to the greenback when you resell it in the forex market. If your broker allows you to take on a 200:1 capital leverage, then you can possibly control much more money than what you really have. This is allowed because currencies do not move that much compared to one another, unlike in the stock market where very sharp price movements are always possible. So, your capital is under less risk. The only crucial part which should be considered are the proportions which can be either gained or lost whenever changes in currency pair values occurs. Trading strategies explained A better approach is to search any of. Will do nine to to take an IQ of glue and eBay fees with a couple of pennies left over). 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Discount commodity futures more charts methods. copy Metro Model Management 2012 SPECIAL REPORT: Jacks Zero to a Million Trading StrategyForex Mentor Tactical Fx Trend Trading Strategies Forex Mentor Tactical Fx Trend Trading Strategies Language: English 600 x 400 SWF 122 Kbps trading examples included Duration: 8h 24mn 528 MB Genre: Trading Forex Authors: Vic Noble and Kelvin Thornley The Step by Step Trend Following Strategies of a Full time Forex Trader Kelvins approach flat out works I hope you will take advantage of this rare opportunity to learn from someone that has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that it is possible to attain consistent profitability by applying simple and time tested techniques. Working with Kelvin to put this course together with him has been a unique experience for me for several reasons. First, Kelvin is the most unassuming person you will ever meet. He has a very simple way about him. His trading approach is equally simple. Like many traders, Kelvin trades at levels of supportresistance, but he has a unique way of qualifying and filtering currency pairs before each trading day. He learned this technique from a bank trader friend who works at a major world bank. Another interesting fact you will hear about Kelvin is his great understanding of odds and probabilities. At the age of just 13 years old, Kelvin learned about horse betting from one of the most successful bettors of the time. He took Kelvin under his wing and taught him some valuable lessons that were a key factor in shaping Kelvins success. To this day, Kelvin still successfully bets on horse races. Youll hear Kelvin talk about this person who mentored him, as well as other people who had a big influence on him. Its a cool story, and I think youll really love it. Heres what you can expect from this course: A detailed approach of Kelvins daily trading plan All the technical tools Kelvin uses How he uses stochastic and MACD How he assesses which currency pairs hes even interested in for the next trading day (this takes only a few minutes at the end of the day) Over 20 real recent trading examples are discussed PS. Si vous avez reçu une erreur lors de l'extraction alors que d'autres fonctionnent, essayez un autre chemin d'accès au répertoire dans votre PC. Parfois, si vous avez un long chemin d'accès au répertoire tout en l'extrayant, vous obtiendrez une erreur. Pour résoudre ce problème. Comme un exemple, collez le fichier tgz dans le lecteur C et extraire (juste à l'intérieur du lecteur C pas dans un autre dossier). Hope your Understand Mettre à jour Stats Torrent pour voir les semoirs actuels et Leechers Visitez mon compte pour télécharger d'autres applications et magazines ebooks Si ce Torrent utile S'il vous plaît soutenir les auteurs en l'achetant. Thanx
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